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COVID-19 lockdown, fixed effects, southern micromarkets, time regression discontinuity, USA
The global pandemic, due to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), disrupted global commodity markets and individual consumption patterns. Various COVID-19-related policies were put in place by state and local governments to limit the virus outbreak, which disrupted the production and supply chains of manufacturing industries. The forest sector was not an exception. Using the Time Regression Discontinuity (T-RD) approach, we quantified the effect of various COVID-19 policies on standing timber prices in the Southern United States. We found an overall significant decrease in prices across all timber products (7%-30%) soon after COVID-19 lockdowns were implemented in early 2020. Findings from the fixed effects (FE) estimators suggest mandatory lockdowns for all individuals in certain areas of the jurisdiction had a decreasing price effect on pine pulpwood but an increasing effect on hardwood sawtimber. We expect that the findings from this study may help to set expectations for future market shocks if policies are implemented that impact the timber supply chain and consumer behavioral changes.