Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic policies on timber markets in the Southern United States
Main Article Content
Keywords
COVID-19 lockdown, fixed effects, southern micromarkets, time regression discontinuity, USA
Abstract
The global pandemic, due to SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), disrupted global commodity markets and individual consumption patterns. Various COVID-19-related policies were put in place by state and local governments to limit the virus outbreak, which disrupted the production and supply chains of manufacturing industries. The forest sector was not an exception. Using the Time Regression Discontinuity (T-RD) approach, we quantified the effect of various COVID-19 policies on standing timber prices in the Southern United States. We found an overall significant decrease in prices across all timber products (7%-30%) soon after COVID-19 lockdowns were implemented in early 2020. Findings from the fixed effects (FE) estimators suggest mandatory lockdowns for all individuals in certain areas of the jurisdiction had a decreasing price effect on pine pulpwood but an increasing effect on hardwood sawtimber. We expect that the findings from this study may help to set expectations for future market shocks if policies are implemented that impact the timber supply chain and consumer behavioral changes.
References
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Zhang X, Stottlemyer A. 2021. Lumber and timber price trends analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Retrieved on October, 1, p.2021.
Apple Inc. "Mobility Trends Data." 2020-2021
Bakolis I, Stewart R, Baldwin D, Beenstock J, Bibby P, Broadbent M, Cardinal R, Chen S, Chinnasamy K, Cipriani A, Douglas S. 2021. Changes in daily mental health service use and mortality at the commencement and lifting of COVID-19 'lockdown'policy in 10 UK sites: a regression discontinuity in time design. BMJ open, 11(5), p.e049721. https://doi.org/10.1136/bmjopen-2021-049721
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Calonico S, Cattaneo MD, Titiunik R. 2014. Robust data-driven inference in the regression-discontinuity design. The Stata Journal, 14(4), pp.909-946. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1401400413
Calonico S, Cattaneo MD, Farrell MH, Titiunik R. 2017. rdrobust: Software for regression-discontinuity designs. The Stata Journal, 17(2), pp.372-404. https://doi.org/10.1177/1536867X1701700208
Calonico S, Cattaneo MD, Titiunik R. 2015. Optimal data-driven regression discontinuity plots." Journal of the American Statistical Association 110, no. 512: 1753-1769. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2015.1017578
Calonico S, Cattaneo MD, Farrell MH. 2020. Optimal bandwidth choice for robust bias-corrected inference in regression discontinuity designs. The Econometrics Journal, 23(2), pp.192-210. https://doi.org/10.1093/ectj/utz022
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). 2021. U.S. state and territorial stay-at-home orders: March 15, 2020 - August 15, 2021 by County by day. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Retrieved July 15, 2022, from https://data.cdc.gov/Policy-Surveillance/U-S-State-and-Territorial-Stay-At-Home-Orders-Marc/y2iy-8irm
Coibion O, Gorodnichenko Y, Ropele T. 2020. Inflation expectations and firm decisions: New causal evidence. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1), pp.165-219. https://doi.org/10.1093/qje/qjz029
Cot C, Cacciapaglia G, Sannino F. 2021. Mining Google and Apple mobility data: Temporal anatomy for COVID-19 social distancing. Scientific reports, 11(1), p.4150. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-021-83441-4
Cucinotta D, Vanelli M. 2020. WHO declares COVID-19 a pandemic. Acta Bio Medica: Atenei Parmensis, 91(1), p.157.
Cuaresma JC, Heger M. 2019. Deforestation and economic development: Evidence from national borders. Land Use Policy, 84, pp.e347-e353.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2018.12.039
Department of Homeland Security. 2020. Memorandum on identification of essential critical infrastructure workers during COVID-19 response. March 19, 2020.
del Rio-Chanona RM, Mealy P, Pichler A, Lafond F, Farmer JD. 2020. Supply and demand shocks in the COVID-19 pandemic: An industry and occupation perspective. Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 36(Supplement_1), pp.S94-S137. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxrep/graa033
Dahal RP, Henderson JE, Munn IA. 2015. Forest products industry size and economic multipliers in the US South. Forest products journal, 65(7-8), pp.372-380. https://doi.org/10.13073/FPJ-D-14-00083
Diop TB, Vedrine L. 2020. The forest taxation and log export ban effect on deforestation: Evidence from Cameroon. Retrieved from https://www.sfer.asso.fr/source/jrss2020/articles/A51_Diop.pdf
Faria-e-Castro M. 2021. The COVID retirement boom. Economic Synopses, No. 25, 2021. https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2021.25
https://doi.org/10.20955/es.2021.25
Fastmarkets RISI. 2021. Random Lengths weekly report (various). Eugene, OR.
Forest2Market. 2021. Global wood and fiber supply chain experts. Forest2Market. Retrieved on July 15, 2022, from https://www.forest2market.com/?hsLang=en-us
Gagnon B, MacDonald H, Hope E, Blair MJ, McKenney DW. 2022. Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on biomass supply chains: the case of the Canadian wood pellet industry. Energies, 15(9), p.3179. https://doi.org/10.3390/en15093179
Greene WD, Mayo JH, DeHoop CF, Egan AF. 2004. Causes and costs of unused logging production capacity in the southern United States and Maine. Forest Products Journal, 54(5).
Greene, W., 2018. Econometric Analysis. 8th Edition, Pearson, New York, NY.
Guan Z, Zhang Y. 2022. The impact of changes in log import price from the logging ban on the market price of timber products. Journal of Sustainable Forestry, pp.1-15. https://doi.org/10.1080/10549811.2022.2043905
Guerrieri, V., Lorenzoni, G., Straub, L. and Werning, I., 2022. Macroeconomic implications of COVID-19: Can negative supply shocks cause demand shortages?. American Economic Review, 112(5), pp.1437-74. https://doi.org/10.1257/aer.20201063
Hahn J, Todd P, Van der Klaauw W. 2001. Identification and estimation of treatment effects with a regression-discontinuity design. Econometrica, 69(1), pp.201-209. https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-0262.00183
Hausman C, Rapson DS. 2018. Regression discontinuity in time: Considerations for empirical applications. Annual Review of Resource Economics, 10, pp.533-552. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-resource-121517-033306
Heckman JJ, Vytlacil EJ. 2007. Econometric evaluation of social programs, part I: Causal models, structural models and econometric policy evaluation. Handbook of econometrics, 6, pp.4779-4874. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1573-4412(07)06070-9
Henderson JD, Abt RC, Abt KL, Baker J, Sheffield R. 2022. Impacts of hurricanes on forest markets and economic welfare: The case of hurricane Michael. Forest Policy and Economics, 140, p.102735. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2022.102735
Hevia C, Neumeyer A. 2020. A conceptual framework for analyzing the economic impact of COVID-19 and its policy implications. UNDP Lac COVID-19 Policy Documents Series, 1, p.29.
Hilsenroth J, Grogan KA, Crandall RM, Bond L, Sharp M. 2021. The Impact of COVID-19 on management of non-industrial private forests in the Southeastern United States. Trees, Forests and People, 6, p.100159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tfp.2021.100159
Hu T, Wang S, She B, Zhang M, Huang X, Cui Y, Khuri J, Hu Y, Fu X, Wang X, Wang P. 2021. Human mobility data in the COVID-19 pandemic: characteristics, applications, and challenges. International Journal of Digital Earth, 14(9), pp.1126-1147. https://doi.org/10.1080/17538947.2021.1952324
Imbens GW, Wooldridge JM. 2009. Recent developments in the econometrics of program evaluation. Journal of economic literature, 47(1), pp.5-86. https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.47.1.5
Imbens G, Kalyanaraman K. 2012. Optimal bandwidth choice for the regression discontinuity estimator. The Review of economic studies, 79(3), pp.933-959. https://doi.org/10.1093/restud/rdr043
International Forest Industries. 2020. Posted by Jo English. April 2, 2020. https://internationalforestindustries.com/2020/04/02/weyerhaeuser-to-reduce-lumber-production/ (Accessed March 10, 2023).
Jing M, Ng KY, Mac Namee B, Biglarbeigi P, Brisk R, Bond R, Finlay D, McLaughlin J. 2021. COVID-19 modelling by time-varying transmission rate associated with mobility trend of driving via Apple Maps. Journal of Biomedical Informatics, 122, p.103905.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbi.2021.103905
Johns Hopkins University and Medicine. Coronavirus Resource Center. 2022. Available at. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html . Accessed December 2022.
Kurita J, Sugishita Y, Sugawara T, Ohkusa Y. 2021. Evaluating Apple Inc mobility trend data related to the COVID-19 outbreak in Japan: Statistical analysis. JMIR public health and surveillance, 7(2), p.e20335. https://doi.org/10.2196/20335
Lee DS, Lemieux T. 2010. Regression discontinuity designs in economics. Journal of economic literature, 48(2), pp.281-355.
https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.48.2.281
Liu S, Su Y. 2021. The impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on the demand for density: Evidence from the US housing market. Economics letters, 207, p.110010. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.econlet.2021.110010
Liu S, Ermolieva T, Cao G, Chen G, Zheng X. 2021. Analyzing the effectiveness of COVID-19 lockdown policies using the time-dependent reproduction number and the regression discontinuity framework: Comparison between countries. Engineering Proceedings, 5(1), p.8.
https://doi.org/10.3390/engproc2021005008
Ludwig J, Miller DL. 2007. Does Head Start improve children's life chances? Evidence from a regression discontinuity design. The Quarterly journal of economics, 122(1), pp.159-208. https://doi.org/10.1162/qjec.122.1.159
Mheidly N, Fares MY, Zalzale H, Fares J. 2020. Effect of face masks on interpersonal communication during the COVID-19 pandemic. Frontiers in Public Health, 8, p.582191. https://doi.org/10.3389/fpubh.2020.582191
NOAA. 2022. Precipitation Frequency Server. Accessed April 2022. Retrieved from https://hdsc.nws.noaa.gov/hdsc/pfds/
Nouvellet, P., Bhatia, S., Cori, A., Ainslie, K.E., Baguelin, M., Bhatt, S., Boonyasiri, A., Brazeau, N.F., Cattarino, L., Cooper, L.V. and Coupland, H., 2021. Reduction in mobility and COVID-19 transmission. Nature communications, 12(1), p.1090. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-21358-2
Oswalt SN, Smith WB, Miles PD, Pugh SA. 2019. Forest resources of the United States, 2017: A technical document supporting the Forest Service 2020 RPA Assessment. Gen. Tech. Rep. WO-97. Washington, DC: US Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Washington Office., 97.
https://doi.org/10.2737/WO-GTR-97
Prestemon JP, Guo J. 2022. COVID-19 and the forest products sector in 2020-2021. ORMS Today, 49(1).
Ruan J, Cai Q, Jin S. 2021. Impact of COVID‐19 and nationwide lockdowns on vegetable prices: evidence from wholesale markets in China. American journal of agricultural economics, 103(5), pp.1574-1594. https://doi.org/10.1111/ajae.12211
Ruby D. 2022. IPhone user and sales statistics. DemandSage. October 14, 2022. https://www.demandsage.com/iphone-user-statistics/
SeekingAlpha. 2021. Rayonier Advanced Materials Inc. February 27, 2021. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4409828-rayonier-advanced-materials-ryam-ceo-paul-boynton-on-q4-2020-results-earnings-call-transcript (Accessed March 10, 2023).
Shahini E, Skuraj E, Sallaku F, Shahini S. 2022. The supply shock in organic fertilizers for agriculture caused by the effect of Russia-Ukraine war. Scientific Horizons., 25(2), pp.97-103. https://doi.org/10.48077/scihor.25(2).2022.97-103
Shemer L, Shayanfar E, Avner J, Miquel R, Mishra S, Radovic M. 2022. COVID-19 impacts on mobility and travel demand. Case Studies on Transport Policy, 10(4), pp.2519-2529. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cstp.2022.11.011
Kanieski da Silva B, Cubbage FW, Gonzalez R, Abt RC. 2019. Assessing market power in the US pulp and paper industry. Forest Policy and Economics, 102, pp.138-150. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2019.03.009
Stoto MA, Rothwell C, Lichtveld M, Wynia MK. 2021. A national framework to improve mortality, morbidity, and disparities data for COVID-19 and other large-scale disasters. American journal of public health, 111(S2), pp.S93-S100. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2021.306334
U.S. Census Bureau. Accessed May 1, 2021. census.gov.
U.S. Department of State - Bureau of Consular Affairs. July 22, 2020. Suspension of Routine Visa Services. Travel.State.Gov. Accessed April 21, 2023. https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/us-visas/visa-information-resources/visas-news-archive/suspension-of-routine-visa services.html#:~:text=In%20response%20to%20significant%20worldwide,phased%20resumption%20of%20visa%20services.
van Kooten GC, Schmitz A. 2022. COVID-19 impacts on US lumber markets. Forest policy and economics, 135, p.102665.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2021.102665
Venter ZS, Aunan K, Chowdhury S, Lelieveld J. 2020. COVID-19 lockdowns cause global air pollution declines. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(32), pp.18984-18990. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2006853117
Zhang X, Stottlemyer A. 2021. Lumber and timber price trends analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic. Retrieved on October, 1, p.2021.
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May 11, 2023
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Bruck, S. R., Parajuli, R., Chizmar, S., & Sills, E. O. (2023). Impacts of COVID-19 pandemic policies on timber markets in the Southern United States. Journal of Forest Business Research, 2(1), 130–167. https://doi.org/10.62320/jfbr.v2i1.25
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