Assessing conditions to scale up private investment in forest restoration
Main Article Content
Keywords
afforestation, Bonn Challenge, carbon sequestration, forest restoration, low- and middle-income countries, natural climate solutions, private investment
Abstract
Forest restoration (FR) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) requires private investment. We estimated the area of degraded forestland with investment conditions favoring private FR in 115 LMICs. We examined a base scenario, with FR driven by wood markets and influenced by seven investment conditions, and a “natural climate solutions” (NCS) scenario, with FR driven by carbon markets and influenced by six conditions. We have found that barely half of the restorable area in the base scenario, and barely a third in the NCS scenario, has at least four favorable investment conditions (i.e., at least half of the total number). In both scenarios, less than 1% of the restorable area has all conditions favorable. Locations with more favorable conditions tend to have greater potential to generate local livelihood benefits than global carbon or biodiversity benefits. Of the 59 LMICs that have made national commitments to restore forestland under the Bonn Challenge, which has a global goal to restore 350 million hectares by 2030, more than half have made a commitment whose area exceeds our estimate of the country’s restorable area with at least four favorable investment conditions. This discrepancy implies that those countries cannot rely solely on private investment to achieve their commitments. Scaling up private FR in LMICs requires coordinated public-sector investments and policy interventions to improve investment conditions and ensure that private FR generates both local and global environmental benefits.
References
Albanito F, Beringer T, Corstanje R, Poulter B, Stephenson A, Zawadzka J, Smith P. 2016. Carbon implications of converting cropland to bioenergy crops or forest for climate mitigation: A global assessment. GCB Bioenergy 8(1):81-95. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcbb.12242
Ashton MS, Martin MP, Vincent JR. 2024. People today who plant trees successfully do it for livelihoods and income not for biodiversity or climate mitigation. Front. For. Global Change 7:1372409. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1372409
Bastin JF, Finegold Y, Garcia C, Mollicone D, Rezende M, Routh D, Zohner CM, Crowther TW. 2019. The global tree restoration potential. Science 365(6448):76-79. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax0848
Becker B. 2019. Introducing COLDAT: The Colonial Dates Dataset. SOCIUM SFB 1342 WorkingPapers 2. Bremen: SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy, University of Bremen. Available from: https://www.socium.uni-bremen.de/f/51ebd445c4.pdf
Binkley CS, Stewart F, Power S. 2020. Pension-fund investment in forestry. Equitable growth, finance & institutions insight. Washington, DC: The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/35167
Brancalion PHS, Lamb D, Ceccon E, Boucher D, Herbohn J, Strassburg BBN, Edwards DP. 2017. Using markets to leverage investment in forest and landscape restoration in the tropics. For. Policy Econ. 85:103-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.08.009
Brancalion PHS, Niamir A, Broadbent E, Crouzeilles R, Barros FSM, Almeyda Zambrano AM, Baccini A, Aronson J, Goetz S, Reid JL, Strassburg BBN, Wilson S, Chazdon RL. 2019. Global restoration opportunities in tropical rainforest landscapes. Sci. Adv. 5(7):eaav3223. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav3223
Buchhorn M, Lesiv M, Tsendbazar NE, Herold M, Bertels L, Smets B. 2020. Copernicus global land cover layers-collection 2. Remote Sens. 12(6):1044. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12061044
Busch J, Bukoski JJ, Cook-Patton SC, Griscom B, Kaczan D, Potts MD, Yi Y, Vincent JR. 2024. Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change 14(9):996-1002. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02068-1
Campbell JE, Lobell DB, Genova RC, Field CB. 2008. The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands. Environ. Sci. Technol. 42(15):5791-5794. https://doi.org/10.1021/es800052w
Caradine R, Ezekiel M, Piacsek G, Wang M. 2023. Linking forest restoration to sustainable value chains with se.plan. Master's project, Duke University. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10161/27192
Castro J, Morales-Rueda F, Navarro FB, Löf M, Vacchiano G, Alcaraz-Segura D. 2021. Precision restoration: A necessary approach to foster forest recovery in the 21st century. Restor. Ecol. 29(7):e13421. https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.13421
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 2018. Gridded population of the world, version 4 (GPWv4): land and water area, revision 11. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Available at: https://doi.org/10.7927/H4Z60M4Z. Accessed January 4, 2021.
Crouzeilles R, Barros FSM, Molin PG, Ferreira MS, Junqueira AB, Chazdon RL, Lindenmayer DB, Tymus JRC, Strassburg BBN, Brancalion PHS. 2019. A new approach to map landscape variation in forest restoration success in tropical and temperate forest biomes. J. Appl. Ecol. 56:2675-2686. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13501
Cubbage F, Kanieski B, Rubilar R, Bussoni A, Morales Olmos V, Balmelli G, Mac Donagh P, Lord R, Hernández C, Zhang P, Huang J, Korhonen J, Yao R, Hall P, Del La Torre R, Diaz-Balteiro L, Carrero O, Monges E, Tran Thi Thu H, Frey G, Howard M, Chavet M, Mochan S, Hoeflich VA, Chudy R, Maass D, Chizmar S, Abt R. 2020. Global timber investments, 2005 to 2017. For. Policy Econ. 112:102082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2019.102082
Cubbage F, Davis R, Korhonen J, Nepal P, Kanieski B. 2025. Comparative assessment of global wood fiber and forest carbon sequestration prospects. J.For.Bus.Res. 4(1): 1-36. https://doi.org/10.62320/jfbr.v4i1.66
Damodaran A. 2022a. Country risk: determinants, measures, and implications: the 2022 edition. New York, NY: Stern School of Business, New York University. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4161010
Damodaran A. 2022b. Equity risk premiums (ERP): determinants, estimation, and implications: the 2022 edition. New York, NY: Stern School of Business, New York University. Available at: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
Ding H. et al. 2017. Roots of prosperity: The economics and finance of restoring land (World Resources Institute, Washington DC).
Ding H, Markandya A, Feltran-Barbieri R, Calmon M, Cervera M, Duraisami M, Singh R, Warman J, Anderson W. 2021. Repurposing agricultural subsidies to restore degraded farmland and grow rural prosperity. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.20.00013
Enters T, Durst PB, Brown C. 2003. What does it take to promote forest plantation development? Incentives for tree-growing in countries of the Pacific Rim. Unasylva 54(212):11-18.
Erbaugh JT, Pradhan N, Adams J, Oldekop JA, Agrawal A, Brockington D, Pritchard R, Chhatre A. 2020. Global forest restoration and the importance of prioritizing local communities. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4:1472-1476. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01282-2
FAO. n.d. (a). FAOSTAT: Forestry Production and Trade. Available at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FO. Accessed July 22, 2023.
FAO. n.d. (b). RuLIS: Rural Livelihoods Information System. Available at https://www.fao.org/in-action/rural-livelihoods-dataset-rulis/en/. Accessed June 22, 2020.
FAO. 2012. Global ecological zones for FAO forest reporting: 2010 Update (FAO, Rome).
FAO. 2018. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020: Terms and Definitions (FAO, Rome).
FAO. 2020. Global Forest Resources Assessment, 2020: Main Report (FAO, Rome).
FAO. 2022. The State of the World's Forests 2022 (FAO, Rome).
FAO. 2023. se.plan. Available from: https://docs.sepal.io/en/latest/modules/dwn/seplan.html.
FAO. 2024. GLW 4: Gridded Livestock Density (Global - 2020 - 10 km). Available at https://data.amerigeoss.org/dataset/9d1e149b-d63f-4213-978b-317a8eb42d02.
FAO. 2025. se.plan: A forest restoration suitability decision support tool. Available from: https://www.fao.org/in-action/sepal/activities/seplan/en.
FAO and Global Mechanism of the UNCCD. 2015. Sustainable financing for forest and landscape restoration: Opportunities, challenges and the way forward (FAO, Rome).
FAO, ITTO, and United Nations. 2020. Forest Product Conversion Factors (FAO, Rome).
FAO, IUCN, CEM, and SER. 2021. Principles for Ecosystem Restoration to Guide the United Nations Decade 2021-2030 (FAO, Rome).
FAO, SCBD, and SER. 2024. Delivering restoration outcomes for biodiversity and human well-being: Resource guide to target 2 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (FAO, Rome; SCBD, Montreal; and SER, Washington, DC).
FAO, UNDP, and UNEP. 2021. A multi-billion-dollar opportunity: Repurposing agricultural support to transform food systems. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
Favero A, Daigneault A, Sohngen B. 2020. Forests: carbon sequestration, biomass energy, or both? Sci. Adv. 6(50):eaay6792. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay6792
Feyertag J, Childress M, Flynn R, Langdown I, Locke A, Nizalov D. 2020. Prindex Comparative Report 2020: A global assessment of perceived tenure security from 140 countries. Overseas Development Institute, London. Available from: https://www.prindex.net/reports/prindex-comparative-report-july-2020/
Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace. 2024. State of the Voluntary Carbon Market 2024 (Forest Trends Association, Washington DC). Available from: https://www.forest-trends.org/publications/state-of-the-voluntary-carbon-market-2024/
Gan JL, Grainger MJ, Shirley MDF, Pfeifer M. 2023. How effective are perches in promoting bird-mediated seed dispersal for natural forest regeneration? A systematic review protocol. Environ. Evidence 12:15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-023-00308-z
Global Restoration Information Hub. 2024. Global Restoration Commitment Database. Available from: https://grih.info/reports/. Accessed March 6, 2025.
Griscom BW, Adams J, Ellis PW, Houghton RA, Lomax G, Miteva DA, Schlesinger WH, Shoch D, Siikamäki JV, Smith P, et al. 2017. Natural climate solutions. PNAS 114(44):11645-11650. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114
Harrison RD, Swinfield T, Ayat A, Dewi S, Silalahi M, Heriansyah I. 2020. Restoration concessions: A second lease on life for beleaguered tropical forests? Front. Ecol. Environ. 18(10):567-575. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2265
Hofste R, Kuzma S, Walker S, Sutanudjaja EH, Bierkens MFP, Kuijper MJM, Faneca Sánchez M, van Beek R, Wada Y, Galvis Rodríguez S, Reig P. 2019. Aqueduct 3.0: updated decision-relevant global water risk indicators. Technical Note. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. https://doi.org/10.46830/writn.18.00146
International Food Policy Research Institute. 2024. Global Spatially-Disaggregated Crop Production Statistics Data for 2020 Version 1.0. Available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SWPENT.
International Labour Organization. n.d. ILOSTAT. Available at https://ilostat.ilo.org/data. Accessed December 8, 2020.
IUCN and WRI. 2014. A guide to the restoration opportunities assessment methodology (ROAM) (IUCN, Gland, Switzerland).
Jenkins CN, Pimm SL, Joppa LN. 2013. Global patterns of terrestrial vertebrate diversity and conservation. PNAS 110(28):E2602-E2610. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302251110
Jones J, Ellison D, Ferraz S, Lara A, Wei X, Zhang Z. 2022. Forest restoration and hydrology. For. Ecol. Manage. 520:120342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120342
Kaufmann D, Kraay A, Mastruzzi M. 2010. The worldwide governance indicators: methodology and analytical issues. Policy research working paper no. 5430. Washington, DC: World Bank.
https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5430
Kummu M, Taka M, Guillaume JHA. 2018. Gridded global datasets for gross domestic product and human development index over 1990-2015. Sci. Data 5:180004. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.4
Löfqvist S, Ghazoul J. 2019. Private funding is essential to leverage forest and landscape restoration at global scales. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1612-1615. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1031-y
Löfqvist S, Garrett RD, Ghazoul J. 2023a. Incentives and barriers to private finance for forest and landscape restoration. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 7:707-715. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02037-5
Löfqvist S, Kleinschroth F, Bey A, de Bremond A, DeFries R, Dong J, Fleischman F, Lele S, Martin DA, Messerli P, et al. 2023b. How social considerations improve the equity and effectiveness of ecosystem restoration. BioScience 73(2):134-148. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biac099
Martin MP, Woodbury DJ, Doroski DA, Nagele E, Storace M, Cook-Patton SC, Pasternack R, Ashton MS. 2021. People plant trees for utility more often than for biodiversity or carbon. Biol. Conserv. 261:109224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109224
Meli P. et al. 2023. Mapping the information landscape of the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration strategy. Restor. Ecol. 31, e13810. https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.13810
Mishra A, Humpenöder F, Churkina G, Reyer CPO, Beier F, Bodirsky BL, Schellnhuber HJ, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A. 2022. Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities. Nat. Commun. 13:4889.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w
OECD. 2022. Aid in support of environment (OECD, Paris).
Oliveira J, Campbell EE, Lamparelli RAC, Figueiredo GKDA, Soares JR, Jaiswal D, Monteiro LA, Vianna MS, Lynd LR, Sheehan JJ. 2020. Choosing pasture maps: an assessment of pasture land classification definitions and a case study of Brazil. International Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. International 93:102205.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2020.102205
Panayotou T, Vincent JR. 1997. Environmental regulation and competitiveness. In: The Global Competitiveness Report 1997. World Economic Forum, Geneva.
Payn T, Carnus J-M, Freer-Smith P, Kimberley M, Kollert W, Liu S, Orazio C, Rodriguez L, Silva L, Wingfield M. 2015. Changes in planted forests and future global implications. For. Ecol. Manage. 352:57-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.021
Pimm SL, Jenkins CN, Abell R, Brooks TM, Gittleman JL, Joppa LN, Raven PH, Roberts CM, Sexton JO. 2014. The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection. Science 344(6187):1246752.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1246752
Rennert K, Errickson F, Prest BC, Rennels L, Newell RG et al. 2022. Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO₂. Nature 610:687-692. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9
Shyamsundar P, Cohen F, Boucher TM, Kroeger T, Erbaugh JT, Waterfield G, Clarke C, Cook-Patton SC, Garcia E, Juma K, Kaur S, Leisher C, Miller DC, Oester K, Saigal S, Siikamaki J, Sills EO, Thaung T, Trihadmojo B, Veiga F, Vincent JR, Yi Y, Zhang XX. 2022. Scaling smallholder tree cover restoration across the tropics. Global Environ. Change 76:102591. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102591
StataCorp. 2023. Stata Statistical Software: Release 18 (College Station, Texas).
Strassburg BBN, Iribarrem A, Beyer HL, et al. Global priority areas for ecosystem restoration. Nature 586, 724-729 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2784-9
Swift Geospatial. n.d. Geospatial Forestry Platform. Available at https://forestryplatform.com/.
UNEP and FAO. 2020. The United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration: Strategy (UNEP, Nairobi and FAO, Rome).
UNEP and FAO. n.d. What is ecosystem restoration? Available from: https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/what-ecosystem-restoration.
UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. n.d. Protected Planet: The World Database on Protected Areas. Available at www.protectedplanet.net.
United Nations. 2023. World economic situation and prospects 2023 (United Nations, New York).
United Nations General Assembly. 2019. Resolution 73/284 Adopted by the General Assembly on 1 March 2019: United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration 2021-2030 (United Nations, New York).
Verhoeven D, Berkhout E, Sewell A, van der Esch S. 2024. The global cost of international commitments on land restoration. Land Degrad. Dev. 35(16):4864-4874. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.5263
Vincent JR, Curran SR, Ashton MS. 2021. Forest restoration in low- and middle-income countries. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 46:289-317. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-020159
Walker WS, Gorelik SR, Cook-Patton SC, Baccini A, Farina MK, Solvik KK, Ellis PW, Sanderman J, Houghton RA, Leavitt SM, Schwalm CR, Griscom BW. 2022. The global potential for increased storage of carbon on land. PNAS 119:e2111312119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111312119
Weiss DJ, Nelson A, Gibson HS, Temperley W, Peedell S, Lieber A, Hancher M, Poyart E, Belchior S, Fullman N, Mappin B, Dalrymple U, Rozier J, Lucas TCD, Howes RE, Tusting LS, Kang SY, Cameron E, Bisanzio D, Battle KE, Bhatt S, Gething PW. 2018. A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015. Nature 553:333-336. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25181
Wellspring Development Capital Limited. 2024. Lessons from 30 Years of African Commercial Forestry Investments and Implications for the Future (Buckinghamshire, UK). Available from: https://www.gatsbyafrica.org.uk/app/uploads/2024/02/lessons-from-30-years-of-african-commercial-forestry-investments-and-implications-for-the-future-final-abridged.pdf
West TAP, Wunder S, Sills EO, Börner J, Rifai SW, Neidermeier AN, Frey GP, Kontoleon A. 2023. Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation. Science 381(6660):873-877. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade3535
World Bank. n.d. (a). World Bank Country and Lending Groups. Available at https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups. Accessed July 13, 2020.
World Bank. n.d. (b). World Bank Enterprise Surveys. Available at https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/enterprisesurveys.
World Bank. n.d. (c). World Development Indicators. Available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed December 8, 2020 and April 9, 2024.
World Bank. 2022. Scaling up ecosystem restoration finance: A stocktake report (World Bank, Washington DC).
World Bank. 2024. Blueprints for private investment in ecosystem restoration: lessons from case studies (World Bank, Washington DC).
WRI. 2011. Global assessment of opportunities for restoration of forests and landscapes: final report to UNEP WCMC (World Resources Institute, Washington DC).
Zeger SL, Liang KY. 1986. Longitudinal data analysis for discrete and continuous outcomes. Biometrics 42(1):121-130. https://doi.org/10.2307/2531248
Ashton MS, Martin MP, Vincent JR. 2024. People today who plant trees successfully do it for livelihoods and income not for biodiversity or climate mitigation. Front. For. Global Change 7:1372409. https://doi.org/10.3389/ffgc.2024.1372409
Bastin JF, Finegold Y, Garcia C, Mollicone D, Rezende M, Routh D, Zohner CM, Crowther TW. 2019. The global tree restoration potential. Science 365(6448):76-79. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aax0848
Becker B. 2019. Introducing COLDAT: The Colonial Dates Dataset. SOCIUM SFB 1342 WorkingPapers 2. Bremen: SOCIUM Research Center on Inequality and Social Policy, University of Bremen. Available from: https://www.socium.uni-bremen.de/f/51ebd445c4.pdf
Binkley CS, Stewart F, Power S. 2020. Pension-fund investment in forestry. Equitable growth, finance & institutions insight. Washington, DC: The World Bank. https://doi.org/10.1596/35167
Brancalion PHS, Lamb D, Ceccon E, Boucher D, Herbohn J, Strassburg BBN, Edwards DP. 2017. Using markets to leverage investment in forest and landscape restoration in the tropics. For. Policy Econ. 85:103-113. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2017.08.009
Brancalion PHS, Niamir A, Broadbent E, Crouzeilles R, Barros FSM, Almeyda Zambrano AM, Baccini A, Aronson J, Goetz S, Reid JL, Strassburg BBN, Wilson S, Chazdon RL. 2019. Global restoration opportunities in tropical rainforest landscapes. Sci. Adv. 5(7):eaav3223. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aav3223
Buchhorn M, Lesiv M, Tsendbazar NE, Herold M, Bertels L, Smets B. 2020. Copernicus global land cover layers-collection 2. Remote Sens. 12(6):1044. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12061044
Busch J, Bukoski JJ, Cook-Patton SC, Griscom B, Kaczan D, Potts MD, Yi Y, Vincent JR. 2024. Cost-effectiveness of natural forest regeneration and plantations for climate mitigation. Nat. Clim. Change 14(9):996-1002. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-024-02068-1
Campbell JE, Lobell DB, Genova RC, Field CB. 2008. The global potential of bioenergy on abandoned agriculture lands. Environ. Sci. Technol. 42(15):5791-5794. https://doi.org/10.1021/es800052w
Caradine R, Ezekiel M, Piacsek G, Wang M. 2023. Linking forest restoration to sustainable value chains with se.plan. Master's project, Duke University. Available at: https://hdl.handle.net/10161/27192
Castro J, Morales-Rueda F, Navarro FB, Löf M, Vacchiano G, Alcaraz-Segura D. 2021. Precision restoration: A necessary approach to foster forest recovery in the 21st century. Restor. Ecol. 29(7):e13421. https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.13421
Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN). 2018. Gridded population of the world, version 4 (GPWv4): land and water area, revision 11. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Available at: https://doi.org/10.7927/H4Z60M4Z. Accessed January 4, 2021.
Crouzeilles R, Barros FSM, Molin PG, Ferreira MS, Junqueira AB, Chazdon RL, Lindenmayer DB, Tymus JRC, Strassburg BBN, Brancalion PHS. 2019. A new approach to map landscape variation in forest restoration success in tropical and temperate forest biomes. J. Appl. Ecol. 56:2675-2686. https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.13501
Cubbage F, Kanieski B, Rubilar R, Bussoni A, Morales Olmos V, Balmelli G, Mac Donagh P, Lord R, Hernández C, Zhang P, Huang J, Korhonen J, Yao R, Hall P, Del La Torre R, Diaz-Balteiro L, Carrero O, Monges E, Tran Thi Thu H, Frey G, Howard M, Chavet M, Mochan S, Hoeflich VA, Chudy R, Maass D, Chizmar S, Abt R. 2020. Global timber investments, 2005 to 2017. For. Policy Econ. 112:102082. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.forpol.2019.102082
Cubbage F, Davis R, Korhonen J, Nepal P, Kanieski B. 2025. Comparative assessment of global wood fiber and forest carbon sequestration prospects. J.For.Bus.Res. 4(1): 1-36. https://doi.org/10.62320/jfbr.v4i1.66
Damodaran A. 2022a. Country risk: determinants, measures, and implications: the 2022 edition. New York, NY: Stern School of Business, New York University. https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.4161010
Damodaran A. 2022b. Equity risk premiums (ERP): determinants, estimation, and implications: the 2022 edition. New York, NY: Stern School of Business, New York University. Available at: https://pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar/
Ding H. et al. 2017. Roots of prosperity: The economics and finance of restoring land (World Resources Institute, Washington DC).
Ding H, Markandya A, Feltran-Barbieri R, Calmon M, Cervera M, Duraisami M, Singh R, Warman J, Anderson W. 2021. Repurposing agricultural subsidies to restore degraded farmland and grow rural prosperity. World Resources Institute, Washington, DC. https://doi.org/10.46830/wrirpt.20.00013
Enters T, Durst PB, Brown C. 2003. What does it take to promote forest plantation development? Incentives for tree-growing in countries of the Pacific Rim. Unasylva 54(212):11-18.
Erbaugh JT, Pradhan N, Adams J, Oldekop JA, Agrawal A, Brockington D, Pritchard R, Chhatre A. 2020. Global forest restoration and the importance of prioritizing local communities. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 4:1472-1476. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-020-01282-2
FAO. n.d. (a). FAOSTAT: Forestry Production and Trade. Available at http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/FO. Accessed July 22, 2023.
FAO. n.d. (b). RuLIS: Rural Livelihoods Information System. Available at https://www.fao.org/in-action/rural-livelihoods-dataset-rulis/en/. Accessed June 22, 2020.
FAO. 2012. Global ecological zones for FAO forest reporting: 2010 Update (FAO, Rome).
FAO. 2018. Global Forest Resources Assessment 2020: Terms and Definitions (FAO, Rome).
FAO. 2020. Global Forest Resources Assessment, 2020: Main Report (FAO, Rome).
FAO. 2022. The State of the World's Forests 2022 (FAO, Rome).
FAO. 2023. se.plan. Available from: https://docs.sepal.io/en/latest/modules/dwn/seplan.html.
FAO. 2024. GLW 4: Gridded Livestock Density (Global - 2020 - 10 km). Available at https://data.amerigeoss.org/dataset/9d1e149b-d63f-4213-978b-317a8eb42d02.
FAO. 2025. se.plan: A forest restoration suitability decision support tool. Available from: https://www.fao.org/in-action/sepal/activities/seplan/en.
FAO and Global Mechanism of the UNCCD. 2015. Sustainable financing for forest and landscape restoration: Opportunities, challenges and the way forward (FAO, Rome).
FAO, ITTO, and United Nations. 2020. Forest Product Conversion Factors (FAO, Rome).
FAO, IUCN, CEM, and SER. 2021. Principles for Ecosystem Restoration to Guide the United Nations Decade 2021-2030 (FAO, Rome).
FAO, SCBD, and SER. 2024. Delivering restoration outcomes for biodiversity and human well-being: Resource guide to target 2 of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (FAO, Rome; SCBD, Montreal; and SER, Washington, DC).
FAO, UNDP, and UNEP. 2021. A multi-billion-dollar opportunity: Repurposing agricultural support to transform food systems. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome.
Favero A, Daigneault A, Sohngen B. 2020. Forests: carbon sequestration, biomass energy, or both? Sci. Adv. 6(50):eaay6792. https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aay6792
Feyertag J, Childress M, Flynn R, Langdown I, Locke A, Nizalov D. 2020. Prindex Comparative Report 2020: A global assessment of perceived tenure security from 140 countries. Overseas Development Institute, London. Available from: https://www.prindex.net/reports/prindex-comparative-report-july-2020/
Forest Trends' Ecosystem Marketplace. 2024. State of the Voluntary Carbon Market 2024 (Forest Trends Association, Washington DC). Available from: https://www.forest-trends.org/publications/state-of-the-voluntary-carbon-market-2024/
Gan JL, Grainger MJ, Shirley MDF, Pfeifer M. 2023. How effective are perches in promoting bird-mediated seed dispersal for natural forest regeneration? A systematic review protocol. Environ. Evidence 12:15. https://doi.org/10.1186/s13750-023-00308-z
Global Restoration Information Hub. 2024. Global Restoration Commitment Database. Available from: https://grih.info/reports/. Accessed March 6, 2025.
Griscom BW, Adams J, Ellis PW, Houghton RA, Lomax G, Miteva DA, Schlesinger WH, Shoch D, Siikamäki JV, Smith P, et al. 2017. Natural climate solutions. PNAS 114(44):11645-11650. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1710465114
Harrison RD, Swinfield T, Ayat A, Dewi S, Silalahi M, Heriansyah I. 2020. Restoration concessions: A second lease on life for beleaguered tropical forests? Front. Ecol. Environ. 18(10):567-575. https://doi.org/10.1002/fee.2265
Hofste R, Kuzma S, Walker S, Sutanudjaja EH, Bierkens MFP, Kuijper MJM, Faneca Sánchez M, van Beek R, Wada Y, Galvis Rodríguez S, Reig P. 2019. Aqueduct 3.0: updated decision-relevant global water risk indicators. Technical Note. Washington, DC: World Resources Institute. https://doi.org/10.46830/writn.18.00146
International Food Policy Research Institute. 2024. Global Spatially-Disaggregated Crop Production Statistics Data for 2020 Version 1.0. Available at https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/SWPENT.
International Labour Organization. n.d. ILOSTAT. Available at https://ilostat.ilo.org/data. Accessed December 8, 2020.
IUCN and WRI. 2014. A guide to the restoration opportunities assessment methodology (ROAM) (IUCN, Gland, Switzerland).
Jenkins CN, Pimm SL, Joppa LN. 2013. Global patterns of terrestrial vertebrate diversity and conservation. PNAS 110(28):E2602-E2610. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1302251110
Jones J, Ellison D, Ferraz S, Lara A, Wei X, Zhang Z. 2022. Forest restoration and hydrology. For. Ecol. Manage. 520:120342. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2022.120342
Kaufmann D, Kraay A, Mastruzzi M. 2010. The worldwide governance indicators: methodology and analytical issues. Policy research working paper no. 5430. Washington, DC: World Bank.
https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-5430
Kummu M, Taka M, Guillaume JHA. 2018. Gridded global datasets for gross domestic product and human development index over 1990-2015. Sci. Data 5:180004. https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2018.4
Löfqvist S, Ghazoul J. 2019. Private funding is essential to leverage forest and landscape restoration at global scales. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 3, 1612-1615. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-019-1031-y
Löfqvist S, Garrett RD, Ghazoul J. 2023a. Incentives and barriers to private finance for forest and landscape restoration. Nat. Ecol. Evol. 7:707-715. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41559-023-02037-5
Löfqvist S, Kleinschroth F, Bey A, de Bremond A, DeFries R, Dong J, Fleischman F, Lele S, Martin DA, Messerli P, et al. 2023b. How social considerations improve the equity and effectiveness of ecosystem restoration. BioScience 73(2):134-148. https://doi.org/10.1093/biosci/biac099
Martin MP, Woodbury DJ, Doroski DA, Nagele E, Storace M, Cook-Patton SC, Pasternack R, Ashton MS. 2021. People plant trees for utility more often than for biodiversity or carbon. Biol. Conserv. 261:109224. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2021.109224
Meli P. et al. 2023. Mapping the information landscape of the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration strategy. Restor. Ecol. 31, e13810. https://doi.org/10.1111/rec.13810
Mishra A, Humpenöder F, Churkina G, Reyer CPO, Beier F, Bodirsky BL, Schellnhuber HJ, Lotze-Campen H, Popp A. 2022. Land use change and carbon emissions of a transformation to timber cities. Nat. Commun. 13:4889.
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-32244-w
OECD. 2022. Aid in support of environment (OECD, Paris).
Oliveira J, Campbell EE, Lamparelli RAC, Figueiredo GKDA, Soares JR, Jaiswal D, Monteiro LA, Vianna MS, Lynd LR, Sheehan JJ. 2020. Choosing pasture maps: an assessment of pasture land classification definitions and a case study of Brazil. International Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf. International 93:102205.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2020.102205
Panayotou T, Vincent JR. 1997. Environmental regulation and competitiveness. In: The Global Competitiveness Report 1997. World Economic Forum, Geneva.
Payn T, Carnus J-M, Freer-Smith P, Kimberley M, Kollert W, Liu S, Orazio C, Rodriguez L, Silva L, Wingfield M. 2015. Changes in planted forests and future global implications. For. Ecol. Manage. 352:57-67. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foreco.2015.06.021
Pimm SL, Jenkins CN, Abell R, Brooks TM, Gittleman JL, Joppa LN, Raven PH, Roberts CM, Sexton JO. 2014. The biodiversity of species and their rates of extinction, distribution, and protection. Science 344(6187):1246752.
https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1246752
Rennert K, Errickson F, Prest BC, Rennels L, Newell RG et al. 2022. Comprehensive evidence implies a higher social cost of CO₂. Nature 610:687-692. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-022-05224-9
Shyamsundar P, Cohen F, Boucher TM, Kroeger T, Erbaugh JT, Waterfield G, Clarke C, Cook-Patton SC, Garcia E, Juma K, Kaur S, Leisher C, Miller DC, Oester K, Saigal S, Siikamaki J, Sills EO, Thaung T, Trihadmojo B, Veiga F, Vincent JR, Yi Y, Zhang XX. 2022. Scaling smallholder tree cover restoration across the tropics. Global Environ. Change 76:102591. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2022.102591
StataCorp. 2023. Stata Statistical Software: Release 18 (College Station, Texas).
Strassburg BBN, Iribarrem A, Beyer HL, et al. Global priority areas for ecosystem restoration. Nature 586, 724-729 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2784-9
Swift Geospatial. n.d. Geospatial Forestry Platform. Available at https://forestryplatform.com/.
UNEP and FAO. 2020. The United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration: Strategy (UNEP, Nairobi and FAO, Rome).
UNEP and FAO. n.d. What is ecosystem restoration? Available from: https://www.decadeonrestoration.org/what-ecosystem-restoration.
UNEP-WCMC and IUCN. n.d. Protected Planet: The World Database on Protected Areas. Available at www.protectedplanet.net.
United Nations. 2023. World economic situation and prospects 2023 (United Nations, New York).
United Nations General Assembly. 2019. Resolution 73/284 Adopted by the General Assembly on 1 March 2019: United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration 2021-2030 (United Nations, New York).
Verhoeven D, Berkhout E, Sewell A, van der Esch S. 2024. The global cost of international commitments on land restoration. Land Degrad. Dev. 35(16):4864-4874. https://doi.org/10.1002/ldr.5263
Vincent JR, Curran SR, Ashton MS. 2021. Forest restoration in low- and middle-income countries. Annu. Rev. Environ. Resour. 46:289-317. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-020159
Walker WS, Gorelik SR, Cook-Patton SC, Baccini A, Farina MK, Solvik KK, Ellis PW, Sanderman J, Houghton RA, Leavitt SM, Schwalm CR, Griscom BW. 2022. The global potential for increased storage of carbon on land. PNAS 119:e2111312119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2111312119
Weiss DJ, Nelson A, Gibson HS, Temperley W, Peedell S, Lieber A, Hancher M, Poyart E, Belchior S, Fullman N, Mappin B, Dalrymple U, Rozier J, Lucas TCD, Howes RE, Tusting LS, Kang SY, Cameron E, Bisanzio D, Battle KE, Bhatt S, Gething PW. 2018. A global map of travel time to cities to assess inequalities in accessibility in 2015. Nature 553:333-336. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature25181
Wellspring Development Capital Limited. 2024. Lessons from 30 Years of African Commercial Forestry Investments and Implications for the Future (Buckinghamshire, UK). Available from: https://www.gatsbyafrica.org.uk/app/uploads/2024/02/lessons-from-30-years-of-african-commercial-forestry-investments-and-implications-for-the-future-final-abridged.pdf
West TAP, Wunder S, Sills EO, Börner J, Rifai SW, Neidermeier AN, Frey GP, Kontoleon A. 2023. Action needed to make carbon offsets from forest conservation work for climate change mitigation. Science 381(6660):873-877. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ade3535
World Bank. n.d. (a). World Bank Country and Lending Groups. Available at https://datahelpdesk.worldbank.org/knowledgebase/articles/906519-world-bank-country-and-lending-groups. Accessed July 13, 2020.
World Bank. n.d. (b). World Bank Enterprise Surveys. Available at https://www.enterprisesurveys.org/en/enterprisesurveys.
World Bank. n.d. (c). World Development Indicators. Available at https://databank.worldbank.org/source/world-development-indicators. Accessed December 8, 2020 and April 9, 2024.
World Bank. 2022. Scaling up ecosystem restoration finance: A stocktake report (World Bank, Washington DC).
World Bank. 2024. Blueprints for private investment in ecosystem restoration: lessons from case studies (World Bank, Washington DC).
WRI. 2011. Global assessment of opportunities for restoration of forests and landscapes: final report to UNEP WCMC (World Resources Institute, Washington DC).
Zeger SL, Liang KY. 1986. Longitudinal data analysis for discrete and continuous outcomes. Biometrics 42(1):121-130. https://doi.org/10.2307/2531248
Article Sidebar
Published
May 6, 2025
Article Details
How to Cite
Vincent, J., Aga, Y., Boscolo, M., Chang, K., Cheng, Z., Dilger, J., Guerrero Machado, D., Herrera, D., Kaczan, D., McMahon, A., Rambaud, P., Spirovska Kono, M., Tenneson, K., Van Rijn, M., Walji, K., Yi, Y., & Finegold, Y. (2025). Assessing conditions to scale up private investment in forest restoration. Journal of Forest Business Research, 4(1), 37–72. https://doi.org/10.62320/jfbr.v4i1.64
Issue
Section
Research article
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
Authors retain copyright and grant the journal the right of first publication with the work simultaneously licenced under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License that allows others to share the work with an acknowledgement of the work's authorship and initial publication in the journal. The journal retains no copyright.
